Making Predictions

Active learning works for making predictions because children solidify abstract thinking through concrete, hands-on tasks. When students manipulate objects or observe living things, their prior knowledge moves from memory to action, turning guesses into reasoned forecasts.

• 2nd Year
• Young Explorers: Investigating Our World
• 4 activities
• 25 min–45 min

Learning Objectives

1. Explain how prior knowledge influences the accuracy of a prediction.
2. Predict the outcome of dropping various objects into water based on their observable properties.
3. Critique a classmate's prediction by identifying the evidence or prior knowledge used to support it.
4. Compare the results of an experiment with initial predictions, noting any discrepancies.

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 30 min·Pairs

Pairs Prediction: Sink or Float Challenge

Pairs list five classroom objects and predict if each sinks or floats based on prior knowledge like shape or material. They test predictions in a water tray, record results, and explain matches or surprises. Discuss as a class why some predictions changed.

Prepare & details

Explain how prior knowledge helps us make better predictions.

Facilitation Tip: During the Sink or Float Challenge, circulate with a small tub of water and ask each pair to explain their prediction for one object before placing it in the water.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 45 min·Small Groups

Small Groups: Plant Light Prediction

Groups observe potted plants and predict growth direction with and without light, using knowledge of sun-seeking behavior. Position plants accordingly for a week, measure changes daily, and compare to predictions. Share findings with sketches and reasons.

Prepare & details

Predict the outcome of dropping different objects into water.

Facilitation Tip: For the Plant Light Prediction, give each small group one houseplant and a flashlight so they can adjust light angles and record changes over two days.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 25 min·Whole Class

Whole Class: Animal Behavior Forecast

Show short videos of animals in habitats; class predicts actions like camouflage or foraging based on unit knowledge. Vote on predictions, watch outcomes, then critique as a group using evidence from the video. Chart accurate versus adjusted predictions.

Prepare & details

Critique a prediction based on the evidence provided.

Facilitation Tip: In the Animal Behavior Forecast, provide picture cards of local animals and ask students to predict responses to stimuli, then justify their choices in a whole-class vote.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 35 min·Individual

Individual: Evidence Critique Stations

Students rotate through stations with prediction scenarios and evidence cards about plants or water tests. They critique if predictions hold, noting supporting or contradicting evidence. Collect sheets for class review.

Prepare & details

Explain how prior knowledge helps us make better predictions.

Facilitation Tip: At Evidence Critique Stations, set up four labeled trays with objects or images and ask students to write corrections on sticky notes, modeling how scientists revise ideas.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Teaching This Topic

Teachers should model their own prediction process aloud, showing how they combine prior knowledge with new observations. Avoid rushing to correct wrong predictions; instead, guide students to notice discrepancies and ask, 'What did you see that made you question your guess?' Research shows this iterative approach builds comfort with uncertainty and deepens scientific reasoning.

What to Expect

Successful learning looks like students using observations and shared reasoning to form predictions, then revising them when evidence contradicts initial ideas. Pairs and groups should articulate why they revised their thinking, showing they value evidence over first impressions.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

During Pairs Prediction: Sink or Float Challenge, watch for students who guess randomly without referencing their experiences with similar objects.

What to Teach Instead

Prompt pairs to discuss what they know about objects like the metal spoon or plastic bottle, then have them test one familiar item first to ground their next predictions in evidence.

Common Misconception

During Small Groups: Plant Light Prediction, watch for students who treat predictions as fixed outcomes rather than provisional ideas.

What to Teach Instead

After recording predictions, ask groups to explain what evidence would change their minds, then revisit the plants the next day to compare results and adjust predictions together.

Common Misconception

During Whole Class: Animal Behavior Forecast, watch for students who rely on imagination rather than observations of real animals.

What to Teach Instead

Bring in short video clips of local animals responding to stimuli, then ask students to revise predictions using the new visual evidence before the class vote.

Assessment Ideas

Exit Ticket

After Pairs Prediction: Sink or Float Challenge, provide a list of three objects. Ask students to write a prediction for each object, name the prior knowledge or observation that led to the prediction, and circle whether they were correct or not after testing.

Discussion Prompt

During Small Groups: Plant Light Prediction, after two days of observation, ask each group to share one prediction that was correct and one that needed revision. Have them explain what new information changed their thinking.

Quick Check

During Whole Class: Animal Behavior Forecast, present a scenario like, 'A student predicts that a snail will move away from a shadow because it is afraid of birds.' Ask students to write one sentence explaining if this prediction is reasonable and why, using the terms 'prior knowledge' and 'observation'.

Extensions & Scaffolding

• Challenge students to design a new object that will float despite being made of a material that usually sinks, then test it and explain their design choices.
• Scaffolding: Provide sentence starters for predictions like, 'I think ____ will happen because I remember that ____,' and use picture cards to prompt recall.
• Deeper exploration: Have students research a plant or animal from a different climate and predict how it would respond to local conditions, then compare predictions to documented behaviors.

Key Vocabulary

Prediction	An educated guess about what will happen in the future, based on what you already know or have observed.
Prior Knowledge	Information, experiences, or understanding that a person already possesses before encountering new information or a new situation.
Evidence	Facts, observations, or data that support or refute a claim or prediction.
Hypothesis	A proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation; often stated as a prediction.