Mathematics · Foundation · Sorting Objects into Groups · Term 4

Chance: Will It Happen?

Students differentiate between theoretical and experimental probability and calculate probabilities of simple events.

• ACARA Content Descriptions
• AC9M6P01

About This Topic

This topic introduces young students to the language of chance by classifying simple events as certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely. Through key questions like 'Will it snow in our classroom today?' or 'Is lunch certain at school?', children explore everyday predictions. They distinguish theoretical probability, based on logical certainty, from experimental probability, observed through repeated trials with tools like coins or spinners. This foundation supports the Australian Curriculum standard AC9M6P01 by building early reasoning skills.

In the broader mathematics curriculum, chance connects to data collection and patterns in Foundation sorting units. Students develop descriptive language for uncertainty, vital for later probability work, while linking to real-world routines like school schedules. Group discussions encourage justification of predictions, strengthening oral communication and critical thinking.

Active learning excels for this topic since abstract chance ideas become concrete through play. When students vote on event likelihoods, conduct coin tosses, or sort picture cards collaboratively, they experience variability firsthand. These methods increase participation, clarify misconceptions via peer talk, and make probability memorable for Foundation learners.

Key Questions

1. Will it snow inside our classroom today , could that ever happen?
2. Is it likely or unlikely that we will have lunch today?
3. Can you think of something that will definitely happen today at school?

Learning Objectives

• Classify everyday events as certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely.
• Explain the difference between an event that will definitely happen and one that cannot happen.
• Predict the outcome of simple chance experiments, such as coin tosses or spinner spins.
• Compare theoretical probability with experimental results from simple trials.

Before You Start

Sorting and Classifying Objects

Why: Students need to be able to sort objects into groups based on shared attributes, which is a foundational skill for classifying events by likelihood.

Identifying Opposites

Why: Understanding concepts like 'same' and 'different', or 'hot' and 'cold', helps students grasp the idea of 'certain' versus 'impossible'.

Key Vocabulary

Certain	An event that is guaranteed to happen. For example, the sun will rise tomorrow.
Impossible	An event that cannot happen. For example, it will snow inside our classroom today.
Likely	An event that has a good chance of happening, but is not guaranteed. For example, we will have lunch today.
Unlikely	An event that has a small chance of happening. For example, a frog will visit our classroom today.
Chance	The possibility of something happening; whether an event is certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

All events have an equal chance of happening.

What to Teach Instead

Students often assume uniformity without evidence. Coin toss trials in pairs reveal near-equal outcomes over many flips, while discussions of impossible events like indoor snow clarify distinctions. Active sorting reinforces categories through hands-on grouping.

Common Misconception

Past results guarantee future ones.

What to Teach Instead

Young learners may think one heads means all heads next. Repeated experiments with spinners show variability, and peer sharing helps revise ideas. Whole-class prediction reflections build understanding of independence.

Common Misconception

Chance events cannot be reasoned about.

What to Teach Instead

Children view chance as pure guessing. Structured card sorts and voting activities demonstrate logical justification, with group talk correcting guesses into evidence-based claims.

Active Learning Ideas

Whole Class: Prediction Circle

Sit in a circle and pose key questions like 'Will we have recess today?'. Students hold up signs labeled 'certain', 'likely', 'unlikely', or 'impossible' and explain choices. Tally votes on a chart and revisit after events occur.

20 min·Whole Class

Pairs: Coin Toss Experiments

Each pair flips a coin 20 times, records heads or tails on a tally chart, and predicts the next 5 flips. Pairs share results and discuss if outcomes match predictions. Connect to 'likely' events like tails landing half the time.

25 min·Pairs

Small Groups: Event Card Sort

Provide cards with pictures like 'sun shining at night' or 'eating lunch'. Groups sort into 'certain', 'impossible', 'likely', 'unlikely' categories and justify placements. Display sorts for class vote.

30 min·Small Groups

Individual: Chance Drawings

Students draw 3 school events and label each with chance words. They share one drawing with a partner, explaining reasoning. Collect for a class display.

15 min·Individual

Real-World Connections

• Weather forecasters use the concept of likelihood to communicate the chance of rain or sunshine, helping people plan outdoor activities.
• Game designers use probability to ensure fairness in board games and video games, determining the odds of drawing a certain card or encountering a specific event.
• Parents and teachers use certainty and impossibility to explain daily routines and safety rules to young children, such as 'It is certain we will brush our teeth before bed' or 'It is impossible to touch the hot stove'.

Assessment Ideas

Quick Check

Present students with picture cards of various events (e.g., a cat meowing, a fish flying, the moon shining at night, a student eating lunch). Ask students to sort the cards into four piles: Certain, Impossible, Likely, Unlikely. Observe their sorting and ask 'Why did you put this card here?'

Exit Ticket

Give each student a small piece of paper. Ask them to draw one thing that is impossible and write the word 'Impossible' underneath. Then, ask them to draw one thing that is certain and write 'Certain' underneath.

Discussion Prompt

Pose the question: 'If we flip a coin 10 times, will it land on heads exactly 5 times?' Facilitate a discussion about whether this is certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely. Introduce the idea that sometimes things don't happen exactly as we expect, even if they are likely.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I introduce chance vocabulary like certain and impossible?

Start with familiar school events and concrete visuals. Use thumbs-up/down voting for predictions, then model labels on a class chart. Reinforce through daily routines, like 'Is morning tea certain?', to embed terms naturally over a week.

What activities build experimental probability skills?

Coin flips and spinner trials work well. Have pairs record 20 trials, predict patterns, and graph results. Compare class data to show experimental approaches approximate theoretical chances, like 50% for fair coins, fostering data interpretation.

How can active learning help students understand chance?

Active methods like group sorts and prediction games make chance tangible for Foundation students. Hands-on trials reveal variability that lectures miss, while peer discussions correct misconceptions through shared evidence. Collaborative voting boosts confidence in using terms like 'likely', leading to deeper retention and enthusiasm.

How to address differentiation in chance lessons?

Offer tiered tasks: basic voting for all, card sorts for pairs, and journals for advanced drawers. Use visuals for EAL students and extend with more trials for quick finishers. Class displays let everyone contribute and learn from peers.