Mathematics · Foundation

Active learning ideas

Chance: Will It Happen?

Active learning works well for this topic because young students grasp the language of chance best through concrete, hands-on experiences. Talking about theoretical ideas like ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ becomes meaningful when paired with real events they can test and sort. Movement, discussion, and repeated trials help students move from vague intuition to clear reasoning about probability.

• ACARA Content Descriptions
• AC9M6P01

• 15–30 min
• Pairs → Whole Class
• 4 activities

Activity 01

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 20 min · Whole Class

Whole Class: Prediction Circle

Sit in a circle and pose key questions like 'Will we have recess today?'. Students hold up signs labeled 'certain', 'likely', 'unlikely', or 'impossible' and explain choices. Tally votes on a chart and revisit after events occur.

Will it snow inside our classroom today , could that ever happen?

Facilitation Tip

During Prediction Circle, pause after each statement and ask students to signal their agreement or disagreement with a thumbs up or down before discussing reasons.

What to look for

Present students with picture cards of various events (e.g., a cat meowing, a fish flying, the moon shining at night, a student eating lunch). Ask students to sort the cards into four piles: Certain, Impossible, Likely, Unlikely. Observe their sorting and ask 'Why did you put this card here?'

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

Activity 02

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 25 min · Pairs

Pairs: Coin Toss Experiments

Each pair flips a coin 20 times, records heads or tails on a tally chart, and predicts the next 5 flips. Pairs share results and discuss if outcomes match predictions. Connect to 'likely' events like tails landing half the time.

Is it likely or unlikely that we will have lunch today?

Facilitation Tip

In Coin Toss Experiments, remind pairs to record outcomes in a simple tally chart and talk about any surprises after 10 tosses.

What to look for

Give each student a small piece of paper. Ask them to draw one thing that is impossible and write the word 'Impossible' underneath. Then, ask them to draw one thing that is certain and write 'Certain' underneath.

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

Activity 03

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 30 min · Small Groups

Small Groups: Event Card Sort

Provide cards with pictures like 'sun shining at night' or 'eating lunch'. Groups sort into 'certain', 'impossible', 'likely', 'unlikely' categories and justify placements. Display sorts for class vote.

Can you think of something that will definitely happen today at school?

Facilitation Tip

For Event Card Sort, circulate and listen for students using the language of chance as they explain their groupings to each other.

What to look for

Pose the question: 'If we flip a coin 10 times, will it land on heads exactly 5 times?' Facilitate a discussion about whether this is certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely. Introduce the idea that sometimes things don't happen exactly as we expect, even if they are likely.

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

Activity 04

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 15 min · Individual

Individual: Chance Drawings

Students draw 3 school events and label each with chance words. They share one drawing with a partner, explaining reasoning. Collect for a class display.

Will it snow inside our classroom today , could that ever happen?

Facilitation Tip

During Chance Drawings, encourage students to include short labels or sentences to justify their certainty or impossibility choices.

What to look for

Present students with picture cards of various events (e.g., a cat meowing, a fish flying, the moon shining at night, a student eating lunch). Ask students to sort the cards into four piles: Certain, Impossible, Likely, Unlikely. Observe their sorting and ask 'Why did you put this card here?'

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

A few notes on teaching this unit

Teaching chance to young learners benefits from a balance of structured activities and open discussion. Avoid rushing to abstract definitions; instead, let students explore through repeated trials so they experience variability firsthand. Research shows that young children develop probabilistic reasoning best when language is paired with action and reflection. Use peer talk to challenge assumptions, and be ready to revisit ideas across multiple sessions.

Successful learning looks like students explaining their choices using the language of chance with confidence. They should justify their sorting or predictions with reasons, not just labels. By the end of the activities, students should comfortably use terms like certain, impossible, likely, and unlikely to describe everyday events and outcomes from experiments.

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Watch Out for These Misconceptions

• During Coin Toss Experiments, watch for students assuming every flip will always alternate between heads and tails or that results should be perfectly balanced after a few tosses.

  Use the recorded tallies from the experiment to point out that real results vary and only become balanced after many trials. Ask students to compare their outcomes and discuss why 10 flips might not give exactly 5 heads and 5 tails.

• During Coin Toss Experiments or Prediction Circle, watch for students thinking that past results change the chance of future outcomes.

  Ask students to predict the next outcome after several heads in a row and listen for phrases like ‘it’s due for tails’. Use the data from their experiments to show that each flip is independent and outcomes don’t depend on previous results.

• During Event Card Sort, watch for students labeling all familiar events as likely or certain without considering context or evidence.

  Prompt students to explain their choices using ‘because’ statements. For example, if a student sorts ‘a cat meowing’ as likely, ask them to consider when or where this might be impossible, like in a quiet library.

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Methods used in this brief

• Outdoor Investigation Session