Chance: Will It Happen?

Active learning works well for this topic because young students grasp the language of chance best through concrete, hands-on experiences. Talking about theoretical ideas like ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ becomes meaningful when paired with real events they can test and sort. Movement, discussion, and repeated trials help students move from vague intuition to clear reasoning about probability.

• Foundation
• Mathematics
• 4 activities
• 15 min–30 min

Learning Objectives

1. Classify everyday events as certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely.
2. Explain the difference between an event that will definitely happen and one that cannot happen.
3. Predict the outcome of simple chance experiments, such as coin tosses or spinner spins.
4. Compare theoretical probability with experimental results from simple trials.

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 20 min·Whole Class

Whole Class: Prediction Circle

Sit in a circle and pose key questions like 'Will we have recess today?'. Students hold up signs labeled 'certain', 'likely', 'unlikely', or 'impossible' and explain choices. Tally votes on a chart and revisit after events occur.

Prepare & details

Will it snow inside our classroom today — could that ever happen?

Facilitation Tip: During Prediction Circle, pause after each statement and ask students to signal their agreement or disagreement with a thumbs up or down before discussing reasons.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 25 min·Pairs

Pairs: Coin Toss Experiments

Each pair flips a coin 20 times, records heads or tails on a tally chart, and predicts the next 5 flips. Pairs share results and discuss if outcomes match predictions. Connect to 'likely' events like tails landing half the time.

Prepare & details

Is it likely or unlikely that we will have lunch today?

Facilitation Tip: In Coin Toss Experiments, remind pairs to record outcomes in a simple tally chart and talk about any surprises after 10 tosses.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 30 min·Small Groups

Small Groups: Event Card Sort

Provide cards with pictures like 'sun shining at night' or 'eating lunch'. Groups sort into 'certain', 'impossible', 'likely', 'unlikely' categories and justify placements. Display sorts for class vote.

Prepare & details

Can you think of something that will definitely happen today at school?

Facilitation Tip: For Event Card Sort, circulate and listen for students using the language of chance as they explain their groupings to each other.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 15 min·Individual

Individual: Chance Drawings

Students draw 3 school events and label each with chance words. They share one drawing with a partner, explaining reasoning. Collect for a class display.

Prepare & details

Will it snow inside our classroom today — could that ever happen?

Facilitation Tip: During Chance Drawings, encourage students to include short labels or sentences to justify their certainty or impossibility choices.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Teaching This Topic

Teaching chance to young learners benefits from a balance of structured activities and open discussion. Avoid rushing to abstract definitions; instead, let students explore through repeated trials so they experience variability firsthand. Research shows that young children develop probabilistic reasoning best when language is paired with action and reflection. Use peer talk to challenge assumptions, and be ready to revisit ideas across multiple sessions.

What to Expect

Successful learning looks like students explaining their choices using the language of chance with confidence. They should justify their sorting or predictions with reasons, not just labels. By the end of the activities, students should comfortably use terms like certain, impossible, likely, and unlikely to describe everyday events and outcomes from experiments.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

During Coin Toss Experiments, watch for students assuming every flip will always alternate between heads and tails or that results should be perfectly balanced after a few tosses.

What to Teach Instead

Use the recorded tallies from the experiment to point out that real results vary and only become balanced after many trials. Ask students to compare their outcomes and discuss why 10 flips might not give exactly 5 heads and 5 tails.

Common Misconception

During Coin Toss Experiments or Prediction Circle, watch for students thinking that past results change the chance of future outcomes.

What to Teach Instead

Ask students to predict the next outcome after several heads in a row and listen for phrases like ‘it’s due for tails’. Use the data from their experiments to show that each flip is independent and outcomes don’t depend on previous results.

Common Misconception

During Event Card Sort, watch for students labeling all familiar events as likely or certain without considering context or evidence.

What to Teach Instead

Prompt students to explain their choices using ‘because’ statements. For example, if a student sorts ‘a cat meowing’ as likely, ask them to consider when or where this might be impossible, like in a quiet library.

Assessment Ideas

Quick Check

After Event Card Sort, present students with new picture cards and ask them to sort them into four labeled areas: Certain, Impossible, Likely, Unlikely. Observe their sorting and ask each student to explain one card’s placement using the language of chance.

Exit Ticket

During Chance Drawings, collect the student sheets and look for accurate use of the terms ‘Certain’ and ‘Impossible’ with matching drawings. Note any students who need further clarification on these key terms.

Discussion Prompt

After Coin Toss Experiments, pose the question: ‘If we flip a coin 10 times, will it land on heads exactly 5 times?’ Facilitate a discussion where students share their predictions and reasoning based on their experiment data. Listen for evidence of understanding variability and likelihood.

Extensions & Scaffolding

• Challenge students who finish early to create their own event cards for a class sorting challenge, including at least one event for each category: certain, impossible, likely, unlikely.
• Scaffolding: Provide sentence starters on cards, such as “I think this is likely because…” or “This is impossible because…” to support students in articulating their reasoning.
• Deeper exploration: Introduce a simple two-spinner experiment where students predict and test combined outcomes, recording results in a table and discussing patterns they notice.

Key Vocabulary

Certain	An event that is guaranteed to happen. For example, the sun will rise tomorrow.
Impossible	An event that cannot happen. For example, it will snow inside our classroom today.
Likely	An event that has a good chance of happening, but is not guaranteed. For example, we will have lunch today.
Unlikely	An event that has a small chance of happening. For example, a frog will visit our classroom today.
Chance	The possibility of something happening; whether an event is certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely.