Science · Kindergarten · The Senses and Scientific Inquiry · Weeks 28-36

Making Predictions

Students learn to make simple predictions based on observations and prior knowledge.

• Common Core State Standards
• K-ETS1-1

About This Topic

Making predictions is one of the first explicitly scientific habits of mind that students can practice, and it connects observation to expectation in a way that makes science feel purposeful. In this topic, aligned with K-ETS1-1, students learn to form a prediction based on what they already know, state it in advance, and then compare it to what actually happens. This sequence , predict, test, compare , is the foundation of experimental thinking.

In the US K-12 science framework, predictions at the Kindergarten level are not expected to be formally hypothesis-driven, but they should be grounded in prior experience or observation rather than random guessing. The key instructional move is asking 'Why do you think that?' after every prediction, which pushes students to make their reasoning visible.

Active learning is essential here because a prediction means nothing without a test. When students predict what happens if they mix two colors of playdough, change one variable in a ramp experiment, or add weight to a bridge, they are invested in the outcome in a way that pure observation activities don't create. That investment , wondering whether they were right , is what makes science motivating.

Key Questions

1. Predict what would happen if we changed one thing about our experiment.
2. Justify your prediction about what will happen when you mix two colors of playdough.
3. Explain how making a prediction helps us learn in science.

Learning Objectives

• Formulate a prediction about the outcome of a simple science investigation based on prior observations.
• Compare the actual results of an experiment to a stated prediction.
• Explain how making a prediction helps scientists understand how things work.
• Identify one observation that supports a given prediction.

Before You Start

Using Our Senses to Explore

Why: Students need to be able to make basic observations using their senses before they can use those observations to make predictions.

Sorting and Classifying Objects

Why: Understanding how to group similar items helps students identify patterns and make informed guesses about future events.

Key Vocabulary

Prediction	A statement about what you think will happen in the future, often based on what you already know or have seen.
Observation	Noticing something carefully using your senses, like seeing, hearing, or touching.
Experiment	A test or trial to find out how something works or to see if an idea is true.
Prior Knowledge	Information or experiences you already have that can help you understand something new.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

A wrong prediction means you did something wrong.

What to Teach Instead

A prediction that doesn't match the result is valuable data , it shows that something behaved differently than expected, which is a prompt to investigate why. Celebrating surprising results normalizes prediction errors as productive learning moments.

Common Misconception

Predicting means guessing.

What to Teach Instead

A scientific prediction is based on prior knowledge or observation, not random chance. Asking 'What makes you think that?' after every prediction builds the habit of grounding predictions in evidence rather than intuition alone.

Common Misconception

You should change your prediction if you think you might be wrong.

What to Teach Instead

The value of a prediction comes from committing to it before the test and comparing it honestly afterward. Changing a prediction mid-test defeats the purpose. Using prediction journals where students record in pen (not pencil) can reinforce this commitment.

Active Learning Ideas

Prediction Chart: Change One Thing

Set up a simple ramp with a small car. Make one change (steeper angle) and ask students to predict before testing: 'Will the car go farther, the same distance, or not as far? Why?' Record predictions on a class chart, run the test, and compare results. Repeat with a second change (heavier car).

25 min·Whole Class

Think-Pair-Share: Playdough Color Mixing

Give each pair a small ball of red and yellow playdough. Ask them to predict what color they'll get when they mix the two, then record their prediction by drawing it. After mixing, compare the result to the drawing. Ask: 'Were you right? What would you predict if we mixed blue and yellow next?'

20 min·Pairs

Prediction Journal Entry

Each student draws and writes a prediction for the day's experiment before any testing begins. After the experiment, they draw and write what actually happened. At the end of the unit, students flip through their journals to notice patterns: were they better predictors for some types of experiments than others?

15 min·Individual

Real-World Connections

• Meteorologists make predictions about the weather each day. They use observations of clouds, wind, and temperature to guess if it will rain or be sunny.
• Farmers predict when to plant their crops based on past seasons and current weather patterns. This helps them grow the best food.
• When you are about to cross the street, you predict if it is safe by looking for cars. This prediction helps keep you safe.

Assessment Ideas

Exit Ticket

Give students a picture of two primary colors of paint. Ask them to draw what they predict will happen when the colors are mixed, and write one sentence explaining why they think that will happen.

Quick Check

During a simple experiment, such as rolling a ball down a ramp, ask students: 'What do you predict will happen to the ball when I make the ramp steeper?' Record their predictions and the reasons they give.

Discussion Prompt

After an experiment where a prediction was made and tested, ask: 'Was your prediction correct? How did making a prediction help you understand what happened?' Encourage students to share their thoughts with a partner.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I teach Kindergarteners to make evidence-based predictions rather than guesses?

After every prediction, ask 'What makes you think that?' and model connecting the prediction to something the student has already seen or done. Over time, students internalize this step and begin offering reasoning without prompting. Posting a class list of past results that students can refer back to also supports this habit.

What is the difference between a prediction and a hypothesis at the Kindergarten level?

At Kindergarten, predictions are informal: 'I think the heavier ball will roll farther because it's bigger.' A hypothesis is a more formal, testable statement with a controlled condition. The expectation at this level is the prediction form, with attention to grounding it in something observable rather than a formal if-then structure.

How does active learning improve prediction skills?

Prediction is only meaningful in a context where students can test their expectations and receive feedback. Active learning provides that context: when students set up a ramp, mix playdough, or add blocks to a structure, they are personally invested in whether their prediction holds. That personal stake makes the comparison between prediction and result memorable.

How does making predictions connect to K-ETS1-1?

K-ETS1-1 asks students to define a problem and consider solutions. Predicting what a solution will do before testing it is an essential step in that process. Students who practice prediction in simple experiments build the thinking habit they need to evaluate design solutions: 'I think this will work because... Let's test and see.'