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Business · Year 12

Active learning ideas

Decision Making in Business

Decision making is at the heart of business management. This topic contrasts scientific decision making, using data, models, and systematic processes, with intuitive decision making based on experience and 'gut feeling'. Students learn to construct and interpret decision trees, calculating expected values and net gains to determine the most financially viable path.

National Curriculum Attainment TargetsAQA AS Business 3.2.2Edexcel Theme 1: 1.4.3
20–50 minPairs → Whole Class3 activities

Activity 01

Inquiry Circle50 min · Small Groups

Inquiry Circle: The Decision Tree Build

Groups are given a scenario (e.g., launching a new product vs. expanding an existing one). They must research potential costs and probabilities to build a physical decision tree on the classroom wall, calculating the expected value for each branch.

What is scientific decision making?
AnalyzeEvaluateCreateSelf-ManagementSelf-Awareness
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Activity 02

Think-Pair-Share20 min · Pairs

Think-Pair-Share: Data vs. Gut Instinct

Present a case study where the data suggests one path, but a successful entrepreneur chose another. Students individually decide which approach they would take, then pair up to discuss the risks of ignoring data versus the value of experience.

How do decision trees help managers?
UnderstandApplyAnalyzeSelf-AwarenessRelationship Skills
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Activity 03

Simulation Game30 min · Small Groups

Simulation Game: The Probability Game

Use dice or cards to represent the probabilities in a decision tree. Students 'play' through their decision trees to see if the 'expected value' actually matches the outcome, helping them understand the difference between theoretical and actual results.

What role does intuition play in business choices?
ApplyAnalyzeEvaluateCreateSocial AwarenessDecision-Making
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A few notes on teaching this unit


Watch Out for These Misconceptions

  • The 'Expected Value' is the amount of profit the business will definitely make.

    Expected value is a weighted average of all possible outcomes; it's a tool for comparison, not a guaranteed figure. Peer-led 'What If' scenarios help students see how a single bad outcome can still happen even if the expected value is high.

  • Scientific decision making is always better than intuition.

    Data can be outdated or biased, and in fast-moving markets, intuition can be faster and more flexible. A debate on 'The Limits of Big Data' helps students appreciate that a balance of both is often the most effective approach.


Methods used in this brief