Identifying Possible Outcomes

Active learning works for identifying possible outcomes because students need concrete, hands-on experience with chance experiments to move from abstract ideas to clear understanding. When Year 2 students manipulate objects like coins, spinners, and dice, they turn probability concepts into tangible experiences that build lasting memory.

• Year 2
• Mathematics
• 4 activities
• 15 min–30 min

Learning Objectives

1. Identify all possible outcomes for simple chance experiments involving coins, spinners, and dice.
2. List systematically all possible results for a given chance scenario.
3. Explain how to determine all possible outcomes for a simple chance experiment.
4. Compare the number of possible outcomes for different chance experiments.

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 20 min·Pairs

Pairs: Coin Flip Listing

Partners flip a coin 10 times and list all possible outcomes first, then record actual results. They draw a simple tree diagram showing heads and tails branches. Compare predictions to trials and adjust lists if needed.

Prepare & details

What are all the possible results when flipping a coin?

Facilitation Tip: During the Coin Flip Listing activity, circulate and prompt pairs to explain why they think heads and tails are equally likely before recording.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 30 min·Small Groups

Small Groups: Custom Spinner Challenge

Groups divide paper plates into equal sections with colours, then list all possible spin outcomes. Test spinners 20 times, tally results, and discuss if all outcomes appeared. Share findings with the class.

Prepare & details

Predict all the possible colours you could spin on a spinner with three colours.

Facilitation Tip: In the Custom Spinner Challenge, remind groups to measure sections carefully so outcomes remain fair for accurate comparisons.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 25 min·Whole Class

Whole Class: Die Roll Prediction

Display a six-sided die. Class brainstorms and votes on all possible outcomes together on a shared chart. Roll the die repeatedly, marking tallies. Review the complete list and note equal chances.

Prepare & details

Explain why some outcomes might be more likely than others in a chance experiment.

Facilitation Tip: For the Die Roll Prediction, model how to create a tally chart by recording predictions first, then actual results, to highlight the difference between expectation and reality.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 15 min·Individual

Individual: Card Draw Sort

Give each student a deck of four cards (two red, two blue). List outcomes for drawing one card. Simulate draws with replacement, record in personal tables. Identify overlooked outcomes through self-check.

Prepare & details

What are all the possible results when flipping a coin?

Facilitation Tip: During the Card Draw Sort, ask students to sort cards physically before writing outcomes to reinforce sorting as a method of organizing data.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Teaching This Topic

Start by modeling how to list outcomes systematically, using clear visuals like drawings or simple tables. Avoid rushing to theoretical explanations; instead, let students discover patterns through repeated trials. Research shows that young learners build probabilistic reasoning best when they first experience chance through physical manipulatives before moving to abstract representations. Keep discussions focused on observable data rather than assumptions about luck.

What to Expect

Students will confidently list all possible outcomes from simple chance experiments, explain why some outcomes are more likely than others, and demonstrate systematic thinking in their recordings. Success looks like complete lists, accurate predictions, and clear reasoning during group discussions.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

During the Custom Spinner Challenge, watch for students who assume all outcomes are equally likely even when spinner sections differ in size.

What to Teach Instead

Direct students to measure each section with a ruler and discuss how the size affects the chance of landing on that color. Have them spin 20 times and tally results, then compare tallies to the section sizes to correct assumptions.

Common Misconception

During the Coin Flip Listing activity, watch for students who only list one outcome, such as just heads.

What to Teach Instead

Ask partners to check each other's lists and prompt them to think aloud about what would happen if they flipped the coin again. Provide sentence stems like 'The coin can land on...' to guide completeness.

Common Misconception

During the Die Roll Prediction, watch for students who believe a previous roll affects the next one, such as saying 'the die is due for a 6.'

What to Teach Instead

Run a whole-class simulation with 30 rolls, recording results publicly. Pause after each roll to ask if the next roll depends on the previous one, using the data to demonstrate independence through collective observation.

Assessment Ideas

Exit Ticket

After the Custom Spinner Challenge, give each student a drawing of a spinner with four unequal sections. Ask them to list all possible outcomes and explain which outcome is most likely, collecting responses to check for completeness and reasoning.

Quick Check

During the Card Draw Sort, present a scenario: 'A bag has one red card and two blue cards. You pick one card without looking.' Ask students to hold up fingers to show the number of possible outcomes, then name each outcome aloud while you record responses on the board.

Discussion Prompt

After the Die Roll Prediction, pose this scenario: 'A six-sided die has three 1s, two 2s, and one 3. What are all the possible outcomes you could roll?' Facilitate a class discussion to confirm the outcomes are 1, 2, and 3, then ask students to explain why 1 is more likely than 3 based on the die's faces.

Extensions & Scaffolding

• Challenge: Ask students to design a spinner with three outcomes where one outcome is twice as likely as the others, then test their designs.
• Scaffolding: Provide pre-printed outcome lists with blanks for students to fill in during the Custom Spinner Challenge.
• Deeper exploration: Introduce vocabulary like 'equally likely' and 'more likely' during the Die Roll Prediction to deepen conceptual understanding.

Key Vocabulary

Outcome	A possible result of a chance experiment. For example, 'heads' is an outcome when flipping a coin.
Chance experiment	An activity where the results are uncertain, but we can list all the possibilities. Flipping a coin or spinning a spinner are examples.
Possible outcomes	All the different results that could happen in a chance experiment. For a standard die, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Spinner	A game piece that spins around a central point on a board and lands on a section, indicating a result.