Chance and Likelihood Language

Active learning works for chance and likelihood because young students grasp abstract ideas best through concrete, hands-on experiences. When children physically sort, spin, and draw, they connect words like ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ to real outcomes they can see and discuss.

• Year 1
• Mathematics
• 4 activities
• 20 min–35 min

Learning Objectives

1. Classify everyday events into categories of 'certain', 'likely', 'unlikely', and 'impossible'.
2. Explain the difference between an 'impossible' event and an 'unlikely' event using examples.
3. Justify the likelihood of a specific outcome in a simple game, such as rolling a die or flipping a coin.
4. Compare the likelihood of two different events occurring, using appropriate vocabulary.

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 30 min·Small Groups

Sorting Station: Likelihood Cards

Prepare cards with images of familiar events, such as 'it rains in the desert' or 'the sun comes up tomorrow'. Students sort them into four categories: certain, likely, unlikely, impossible. Discuss justifications as a group before revealing outcomes where possible.

Prepare & details

Differentiate between an 'impossible' event and an 'unlikely' event.

Facilitation Tip: During Mystery Bag Draws, restrict the first draw to one item and ask, ‘Is picking this [item] likely or unlikely? Why?’ to anchor the concept before increasing complexity.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 25 min·Pairs

Spinner Prediction Game

Create spinners divided unevenly: half red, one-quarter blue, one-quarter yellow. Students predict and label likelihoods for each color, then spin 10 times to tally results. Compare predictions to data and adjust language descriptions.

Prepare & details

Explain why some things happen every day while others rarely occur.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 20 min·Whole Class

Everyday Events Circle

Sit in a circle and share daily events. Students hold up signs: certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible. Vote as a class and justify choices, noting patterns in group thinking.

Prepare & details

Justify the likelihood of a specific outcome in a simple game.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Inquiry Circle

⏱ 35 min·Individual

Mystery Bag Draws

Fill bags with mostly one color of counters and a few others. Students predict without looking, draw items, and describe likelihoods. Repeat with different ratios to compare language use.

Prepare & details

Differentiate between an 'impossible' event and an 'unlikely' event.

Setup: Groups at tables with access to source materials

Materials: Source material collection, Inquiry cycle worksheet, Question generation protocol, Findings presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Self-Management
• Self-Awareness

Teaching This Topic

Teach chance language by balancing guided exploration with structured reflection. Begin with extremes—certain and impossible—then move to likely and unlikely, using familiar contexts. Avoid rushing to numbers; let students describe probabilities qualitatively before introducing fractions or percentages. Research shows young learners develop probabilistic thinking best when they experience variability and talk about it repeatedly over time.

What to Expect

Successful learning looks like students using target vocabulary with confidence to describe events in multiple contexts. They justify their choices with evidence from experiments and adjust their language as they gather new data.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

During Spinner Prediction Game, watch for students who treat unlikely outcomes as impossible because the section is small.

What to Teach Instead

Pause the game and ask groups to spin 10 times, tallying results for the small section. Discuss why the outcome appeared (even if rarely) and refine language to reflect that unlikely events can still occur.

Common Misconception

During Mystery Bag Draws, watch for students who assume all colors are equally likely without checking the quantities.

What to Teach Instead

Before drawing, have students count the marbles and vote on likelihood. After draws, compare predictions to results to correct the misconception collaboratively.

Common Misconception

During Everyday Events Circle, watch for students who base likelihood on personal experience rather than general evidence.

What to Teach Instead

Use the ‘sun rising’ example to show how shared data overrides personal bias. Ask, ‘Can anyone find evidence that the sun will rise tomorrow?’ to guide students toward consensus.

Assessment Ideas

Quick Check

After Sorting Station: Likelihood Cards, present picture cards and ask students to place them under the correct likelihood heading on a classroom poster. Observe their choices and listen to their reasoning as they work.

Discussion Prompt

During Spinner Prediction Game, ask groups to explain their predictions using the target vocabulary. Listen for accurate use of ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ and note students who justify their reasoning with observations.

Exit Ticket

After Mystery Bag Draws, give each student a slip with two blanks: ‘I think it is ______ that a [new event] will happen because ______.’ Collect slips to assess their ability to apply likelihood language to a new context.

Extensions & Scaffolding

• Challenge students to design their own spinner with three colors where one outcome is impossible and another is likely.
• Scaffolding: Provide a word bank with missing letters for likelihood terms during Sorting Station.
• Deeper exploration: Ask students to predict outcomes for a spinner with unequal sections and test their predictions, recording results in a simple table.

Key Vocabulary

Certain	An event that is guaranteed to happen. It will happen every time.
Likely	An event that has a good chance of happening. It will probably happen.
Unlikely	An event that has a small chance of happening. It probably will not happen.
Impossible	An event that cannot happen. It will never happen.