Mathematics · Year 1

Active learning ideas

Chance and Likelihood Language

Active learning works for chance and likelihood because young students grasp abstract ideas best through concrete, hands-on experiences. When children physically sort, spin, and draw, they connect words like ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ to real outcomes they can see and discuss.

• ACARA Content Descriptions
• AC9M1P01

• 20–35 min
• Pairs → Whole Class
• 4 activities

Activity 01

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 30 min · Small Groups

Sorting Station: Likelihood Cards

Prepare cards with images of familiar events, such as 'it rains in the desert' or 'the sun comes up tomorrow'. Students sort them into four categories: certain, likely, unlikely, impossible. Discuss justifications as a group before revealing outcomes where possible.

Differentiate between an 'impossible' event and an 'unlikely' event.

Facilitation Tip

During Mystery Bag Draws, restrict the first draw to one item and ask, ‘Is picking this [item] likely or unlikely? Why?’ to anchor the concept before increasing complexity.

What to look for

Present students with picture cards of everyday events (e.g., the sun rising, a cat flying, a birthday happening tomorrow, a dog talking). Ask students to hold up a card or point to a poster labeled 'Certain', 'Likely', 'Unlikely', 'Impossible' that matches the event.

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

Activity 02

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 25 min · Pairs

Spinner Prediction Game

Create spinners divided unevenly: half red, one-quarter blue, one-quarter yellow. Students predict and label likelihoods for each color, then spin 10 times to tally results. Compare predictions to data and adjust language descriptions.

Explain why some things happen every day while others rarely occur.

What to look for

Ask students: 'Imagine you have a bag with 5 red marbles and 1 blue marble. Is it likely or unlikely that you will pick a red marble? Explain why.' Listen for students using the target vocabulary and justifying their reasoning.

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

Activity 03

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 20 min · Whole Class

Everyday Events Circle

Sit in a circle and share daily events. Students hold up signs: certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible. Vote as a class and justify choices, noting patterns in group thinking.

Justify the likelihood of a specific outcome in a simple game.

What to look for

Give each student a slip of paper. Ask them to write one sentence describing an 'impossible' event and one sentence describing a 'certain' event. Collect these to check understanding of the extreme ends of the likelihood scale.

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

Activity 04

• Outdoor Investigation Session
• 35 min · Individual

Mystery Bag Draws

Fill bags with mostly one color of counters and a few others. Students predict without looking, draw items, and describe likelihoods. Repeat with different ratios to compare language use.

Differentiate between an 'impossible' event and an 'unlikely' event.

What to look for

Present students with picture cards of everyday events (e.g., the sun rising, a cat flying, a birthday happening tomorrow, a dog talking). Ask students to hold up a card or point to a poster labeled 'Certain', 'Likely', 'Unlikely', 'Impossible' that matches the event.

• Remember
• Understand
• Analyze
• Social Awareness
• Self-Awareness
• Decision-Making

A few notes on teaching this unit

Teach chance language by balancing guided exploration with structured reflection. Begin with extremes—certain and impossible—then move to likely and unlikely, using familiar contexts. Avoid rushing to numbers; let students describe probabilities qualitatively before introducing fractions or percentages. Research shows young learners develop probabilistic thinking best when they experience variability and talk about it repeatedly over time.

Successful learning looks like students using target vocabulary with confidence to describe events in multiple contexts. They justify their choices with evidence from experiments and adjust their language as they gather new data.

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Watch Out for These Misconceptions

• During Spinner Prediction Game, watch for students who treat unlikely outcomes as impossible because the section is small.

  Pause the game and ask groups to spin 10 times, tallying results for the small section. Discuss why the outcome appeared (even if rarely) and refine language to reflect that unlikely events can still occur.

• During Mystery Bag Draws, watch for students who assume all colors are equally likely without checking the quantities.

  Before drawing, have students count the marbles and vote on likelihood. After draws, compare predictions to results to correct the misconception collaboratively.

• During Everyday Events Circle, watch for students who base likelihood on personal experience rather than general evidence.

  Use the ‘sun rising’ example to show how shared data overrides personal bias. Ask, ‘Can anyone find evidence that the sun will rise tomorrow?’ to guide students toward consensus.

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Methods used in this brief

• Outdoor Investigation Session