Activity 01
Scenario Planning: The Post-Oil Middle East
Groups of four are each assigned a Middle Eastern country, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Yemen, or Iran. They receive a country profile and must write a 2035 scenario: What does the country look like if oil revenue falls 60%? What political, economic, and geographic responses are most likely? Groups present their scenarios and the class identifies common patterns across cases.
Predict how the decline of oil will impact the geopolitics of the Middle East.
Facilitation TipDuring Scenario Planning: The Post-Oil Middle East, assign roles to students based on country profiles to ensure multiple perspectives are represented in each group.
What to look forPose the question: 'Imagine you are advising the leader of an oil-dependent Middle Eastern nation in 2040. What are the top three geopolitical challenges you foresee, and what is one policy recommendation for each?' Facilitate a class debate on the most plausible scenarios.