Making Predictions with Probability

Active learning with hands-on probability activities helps young children move beyond abstract ideas to concrete understanding. Through repeated trials with familiar objects like counters or spinners, they build foundational intuition about chance before formalizing concepts.

• Junior Infants
• Foundations of Mathematical Thinking
• 4 activities
• 20 min–30 min

Learning Objectives

1. Predict the outcome of simple probability experiments based on the number of possible results.
2. Justify predictions by counting favorable outcomes and total possible outcomes in a given scenario.
3. Evaluate the reasonableness of a prediction by comparing it to results from repeated trials.
4. Classify events as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible using probability language.
5. Critique a prediction that does not align with the observed frequency of outcomes in trials.

Case Study Analysis

⏱ 25 min·Small Groups

Probability Bag Draws

Prepare bags with 4 counters: 3 of one color, 1 of another. Children predict and record how many times they draw the majority color in 10 tries with replacement. Groups compare tallies and adjust predictions. Discuss why results vary.

Prepare & details

Analyze how probability can be used to make informed predictions.

Facilitation Tip: During Probability Bag Draws, remind students to shake the bag gently between picks to keep trials independent and random.

Setup: Groups at tables with case materials

Materials: Case study packet (3-5 pages), Analysis framework worksheet, Presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Case Study Analysis

⏱ 30 min·Pairs

Spinner Prediction Wheel

Create paper spinners with unequal sections, like half red and half blue. Students predict the most likely color, spin 15 times each, and mark results on a class chart. Pairs share if predictions matched.

Prepare & details

Justify the reasonableness of a prediction based on calculated probabilities.

Facilitation Tip: For Spinner Prediction Wheel, let children spin at least 20 times to observe patterns rather than relying on a few spins.

Setup: Groups at tables with case materials

Materials: Case study packet (3-5 pages), Analysis framework worksheet, Presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Case Study Analysis

⏱ 20 min·Whole Class

Coin Toss Forecast

Use large foam coins for safety. Children predict heads or tails for 10 tosses, record outcomes, and check reasonableness. Whole class combines data to see overall patterns.

Prepare & details

Critique a prediction that does not align with the underlying probability.

Facilitation Tip: When running Coin Toss Forecast, have students work in pairs to toss the coin 10 times each so they compare small and large sample results.

Setup: Groups at tables with case materials

Materials: Case study packet (3-5 pages), Analysis framework worksheet, Presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Case Study Analysis

⏱ 25 min·Small Groups

Toy Grab Game

Fill a box with 5 toys: 4 animals, 1 car. Predict animal grabs in 8 draws without looking. Tally and reflect on surprises in small groups.

Prepare & details

Analyze how probability can be used to make informed predictions.

Facilitation Tip: In Toy Grab Game, place counters in clear view so children see the unequal groups before predicting which will be grabbed most.

Setup: Groups at tables with case materials

Materials: Case study packet (3-5 pages), Analysis framework worksheet, Presentation template

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Teaching This Topic

Teachers should model questioning and reflection during these activities, asking children to explain their predictions and compare them to actual results. Avoid correcting predictions too early, as the goal is for children to experience the gap between expectation and outcome firsthand. Repeated exposure to small trials helps them accept variability while noticing longer-term trends.

What to Expect

Students will confidently use words like certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible to describe outcomes. They will test predictions, collect data, and discuss whether results matched their initial guesses in a way that shows growing awareness of chance and patterns.

Watch Out for These Misconceptions

Common Misconception

During Probability Bag Draws, watch for children who believe red will come up next because it appeared last time.

What to Teach Instead

After each draw, shake the bag again and ask, 'Does the counter remember what happened before? Why does shaking help us?' Guide them to see each pick as a fresh, independent event.

Common Misconception

During Coin Toss Forecast, watch for children who think two or three tosses reveal the true chance of heads and tails.

What to Teach Instead

Ask students to tally results on a class chart after 10 tosses each. Then prompt: 'If we only tossed three times, would this be a fair way to decide? Let’s try again with more tosses to see what happens.'

Common Misconception

During Spinner Prediction Wheel, watch for children who expect the likely color to appear exactly as predicted in every trial.

What to Teach Instead

After spinning, ask, 'Was green spun more often? How many times did you expect it to land on green? Why did we get close but not exact?' Help them compare their initial guess to the actual tallies.

Assessment Ideas

Quick Check

After Probability Bag Draws, show students a bag with 3 red counters and 1 blue counter. Ask, 'What color do you think we will pick most often? Why?' Record their predictions and reasons on a chart, noting whether they mention the number of counters or past outcomes.

Exit Ticket

During Spinner Prediction Wheel, give each student a spinner with 4 equal sections: 2 green, 1 yellow, 1 red. Ask them to draw a smiley face next to the color they think will be spun most often and write one word to describe its chance (e.g., likely, unlikely). Collect tickets to check for accurate use of probability terms.

Discussion Prompt

After Coin Toss Forecast, ask, 'We predicted heads and tails would happen about the same number of times. Were our predictions reasonable? Why or why not?' Guide them to discuss discrepancies between their initial guesses and the actual tallies, focusing on fairness and chance.

Extensions & Scaffolding

• Challenge pairs to design a spinner with sections that make one color likely but not certain, then test it with the class.
• Scaffolding: Provide a bag with 5 counters (4 of one color, 1 of another) and ask struggling students to predict which color will appear most in 10 draws before tallying results.
• Deeper exploration: Introduce a third activity with a die marked with three 1s, two 2s, and one 3 to compare fairness across different probability setups.

Key Vocabulary

Probability	The chance that something will happen. It helps us guess what might happen next.
Prediction	A guess about what will happen in the future, based on what we know or see.
Outcome	What happens when you try something, like rolling a die or picking a color from a bag.
Fair	When everyone has an equal chance of winning or something happening. No one has an advantage.
Likely	Something that has a good chance of happening.
Unlikely	Something that does not have a good chance of happening.