Foundations of Mathematical Thinking · Junior Infants

Active learning ideas

Making Predictions with Probability

Active learning with hands-on probability activities helps young children move beyond abstract ideas to concrete understanding. Through repeated trials with familiar objects like counters or spinners, they build foundational intuition about chance before formalizing concepts.

• NCCA Curriculum Specifications
• NCCA: Junior Cycle - Strand 3: Statistics and Probability - P.1.6

• 20–30 min
• Pairs → Whole Class
• 4 activities

Activity 01

• Case Study Analysis
• 25 min · Small Groups

Probability Bag Draws

Prepare bags with 4 counters: 3 of one color, 1 of another. Children predict and record how many times they draw the majority color in 10 tries with replacement. Groups compare tallies and adjust predictions. Discuss why results vary.

Analyze how probability can be used to make informed predictions.

Facilitation Tip

During Probability Bag Draws, remind students to shake the bag gently between picks to keep trials independent and random.

What to look for

Show students a bag with 3 red counters and 1 blue counter. Ask: 'What color do you think we will pick most often? Why?' Record their predictions and reasons.

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Activity 02

• Case Study Analysis
• 30 min · Pairs

Spinner Prediction Wheel

Create paper spinners with unequal sections, like half red and half blue. Students predict the most likely color, spin 15 times each, and mark results on a class chart. Pairs share if predictions matched.

Justify the reasonableness of a prediction based on calculated probabilities.

Facilitation Tip

For Spinner Prediction Wheel, let children spin at least 20 times to observe patterns rather than relying on a few spins.

What to look for

Give each student a spinner with 4 equal sections: 2 green, 1 yellow, 1 red. Ask them to draw a smiley face next to the color they think will be spun most often and write one word to describe its chance of being spun (e.g., likely, unlikely).

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Activity 03

• Case Study Analysis
• 20 min · Whole Class

Coin Toss Forecast

Use large foam coins for safety. Children predict heads or tails for 10 tosses, record outcomes, and check reasonableness. Whole class combines data to see overall patterns.

Critique a prediction that does not align with the underlying probability.

Facilitation Tip

When running Coin Toss Forecast, have students work in pairs to toss the coin 10 times each so they compare small and large sample results.

What to look for

After conducting 10 coin tosses, ask: 'We predicted heads and tails would happen about the same number of times. Were our predictions reasonable? Why or why not?' Guide them to discuss the results compared to their initial guess.

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

Activity 04

• Case Study Analysis
• 25 min · Small Groups

Toy Grab Game

Fill a box with 5 toys: 4 animals, 1 car. Predict animal grabs in 8 draws without looking. Tally and reflect on surprises in small groups.

Analyze how probability can be used to make informed predictions.

Facilitation Tip

In Toy Grab Game, place counters in clear view so children see the unequal groups before predicting which will be grabbed most.

What to look for

Show students a bag with 3 red counters and 1 blue counter. Ask: 'What color do you think we will pick most often? Why?' Record their predictions and reasons.

• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Create
• Decision-Making
• Self-Management

A few notes on teaching this unit

Teachers should model questioning and reflection during these activities, asking children to explain their predictions and compare them to actual results. Avoid correcting predictions too early, as the goal is for children to experience the gap between expectation and outcome firsthand. Repeated exposure to small trials helps them accept variability while noticing longer-term trends.

Students will confidently use words like certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible to describe outcomes. They will test predictions, collect data, and discuss whether results matched their initial guesses in a way that shows growing awareness of chance and patterns.

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Watch Out for These Misconceptions

• During Probability Bag Draws, watch for children who believe red will come up next because it appeared last time.

  After each draw, shake the bag again and ask, 'Does the counter remember what happened before? Why does shaking help us?' Guide them to see each pick as a fresh, independent event.

• During Coin Toss Forecast, watch for children who think two or three tosses reveal the true chance of heads and tails.

  Ask students to tally results on a class chart after 10 tosses each. Then prompt: 'If we only tossed three times, would this be a fair way to decide? Let’s try again with more tosses to see what happens.'

• During Spinner Prediction Wheel, watch for children who expect the likely color to appear exactly as predicted in every trial.

  After spinning, ask, 'Was green spun more often? How many times did you expect it to land on green? Why did we get close but not exact?' Help them compare their initial guess to the actual tallies.

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Methods used in this brief

• Case Study Analysis