Mathematics · Junior Infants

Active learning ideas

Introduction to Probability: Likelihood of Events

Young learners build strong probability intuition through hands-on play with familiar objects before formal rules. Sorting games, spinners, and bag pulls turn abstract ideas like 'certain' or 'unlikely' into concrete experiences they can name, compare, and remember. Active learning connects new vocabulary directly to their daily observations, making the language of chance meaningful from the first lesson.

• NCCA Curriculum Specifications
• NCCA: Junior Cycle - Strand 3: Statistics and Probability - P.1.1

• 20–35 min
• Pairs → Whole Class
• 4 activities

Activity 01

• Four Corners
• 25 min · Small Groups

Sorting Game: Event Cards

Prepare picture cards showing events like 'it rains sweets' or 'the bell rings at break'. In small groups, children sort cards into five boxes labeled impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, certain. Groups share one example from each box with the class.

Differentiate between impossible and certain events.

Facilitation Tip

During Sorting Game: Event Cards, circulate and ask each pair to explain why they placed a card in a particular category, listening for their use of evidence or prior knowledge.

What to look for

Provide students with a card listing 3-4 events (e.g., 'A cat will bark', 'The sun will rise tomorrow', 'You will eat an apple today'). Ask students to write one word (impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, certain) next to each event to describe its likelihood and draw a smiley face if it is certain or a neutral face if it is impossible.

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

Activity 02

• Four Corners
• 30 min · Pairs

Bag Pulls: Color Chance

Fill bags with 10-20 colored pompoms, varying ratios like mostly blue for unlikely red. Pairs take turns predicting and pulling three times, recording with tallies or drawings. Discuss why some colors came up more.

Explain how to determine if an event is equally likely to occur or not occur.

Facilitation Tip

During Bag Pulls: Color Chance, model how to record results in a simple tally chart so students see data collection as part of the process.

What to look for

Present students with two scenarios: Scenario A: 'Flipping a coin and getting heads.' Scenario B: 'Picking a blue marble from a bag with 9 red marbles and 1 blue marble.' Ask: 'Which event is more likely to happen? Explain why you think so, using the words likely, unlikely, or equally likely.'

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

Activity 03

• Four Corners
• 35 min · Whole Class

Spinner Trials: Prediction Wheel

Make large spinners with unequal sections for colors or faces. Whole class predicts likelihood before spinning 10 times as a group. Tally results on a chart and classify the spinner's outcomes together.

Construct an example of an event that is unlikely but not impossible.

Facilitation Tip

During Spinner Trials: Prediction Wheel, have students sketch their spinner before spinning to connect their visual prediction with the actual outcome.

What to look for

Hold up a set of picture cards showing different events (e.g., a pig flying, a child sleeping, a birthday cake). Ask students to give a thumbs up if the event is certain, thumbs down if it is impossible, and a thumbs sideways if it is likely or unlikely. Call on a few students to explain their choice.

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

Activity 04

• Four Corners
• 20 min · Individual

Weather Chat: Daily Odds

Each morning, individuals draw weather pictures and label likelihood for rain or sun based on forecasts. Share in circle time, adjusting labels after observing the day. Track over a week on a class poster.

Differentiate between impossible and certain events.

Facilitation Tip

During Weather Chat: Daily Odds, invite students to connect their personal routines to the chance language to deepen relevance.

What to look for

Provide students with a card listing 3-4 events (e.g., 'A cat will bark', 'The sun will rise tomorrow', 'You will eat an apple today'). Ask students to write one word (impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, certain) next to each event to describe its likelihood and draw a smiley face if it is certain or a neutral face if it is impossible.

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

A few notes on teaching this unit

Experienced teachers begin with concrete objects students can manipulate, moving gradually toward language and symbols. They avoid rushing to definitions, instead letting students experience chance through repeated trials and compare predictions with results. Teachers listen closely during whole-group talks to catch early misconceptions and use peer explanations to correct them, trusting that repeated exposure builds lasting understanding.

By the end of these activities, students will confidently label events using the five likelihood words and explain their choices with evidence from trials. They will notice when outcomes are not equally likely and adjust predictions after gathering data, showing growing comfort with uncertainty. Whole-group sharing builds shared language and corrects individual missteps in real time.

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Watch Out for These Misconceptions

• During Bag Pulls: Color Chance, watch for students who assume a single failed draw means an event can never happen.

  Pause the activity after a few pulls and ask the group to predict what might happen if they did 50 pulls instead of five. Record predictions, test again, and compare results to show unlikely events can still occur.

• During Spinner Trials: Prediction Wheel, watch for students who assume every spinner outcome is equally likely.

  Show students two different spinners side by side and ask them to estimate which one is more likely to land on red. Have them test both and tally results to see how unequal sections change likelihood.

• During Sorting Game: Event Cards, watch for students who label routines like school starting as uncertain after a single delay.

  Ask students to add five new routine cards to the 'certain' pile and justify each one. Include cards like 'School will start after a weekend' to highlight patterns that always happen.

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Methods used in this brief

• Four Corners