Mastering Mathematical Thinking: 4th Class · 4th Class

Active learning ideas

Exploring Chance and Likelihood

Let's become fortune tellers! This topic helps your pupils explore the future by learning the mathematical language to describe what might happen next.

• NCCA Curriculum Specifications
• NCCA: Primary School Mathematics Curriculum - Data - Chance

• 15–25 min
• Pairs → Whole Class
• 3 activities

Activity 01

• Human Barometer
• 20 min · Whole Class

Human Chance Line

Create a large line on the floor with labels: 'Impossible', 'Unlikely', 'Likely', 'Certain'. Give pupils cards with different events written on them (e.g., 'It will rain tomorrow', 'A cow will fly through the window') and have them stand on the point of the line that best represents the event's likelihood.

Explain why it is 'impossible' for a dog to meow.

Facilitation Tip

Encourage debate and ask pupils to justify their positions on the line to their classmates.

What to look for

Observe pupils during group activities, listening to their use of chance vocabulary and their reasoning. Use a checklist to note which pupils are using the terms correctly.

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

Activity 02

• Human Barometer
• 25 min · Small Groups

Mystery Bag Predictions

In small groups, give each a feely bag containing a mix of coloured cubes, with one colour being much more numerous (e.g., 8 red, 2 blue). Pupils first predict which colour is more likely to be pulled out, then take turns drawing a cube and recording the result before replacing it.

Compare the likelihood of rolling a 6 on a die versus rolling a number less than 5.

Facilitation Tip

After the experiment, reveal the contents of the bag and discuss why their results occurred.

What to look for

Provide a worksheet with a list of scenarios. Pupils must label each one as 'impossible', 'unlikely', 'likely', or 'certain'.

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

Activity 03

• Human Barometer
• 15 min · Pairs

Dice Roll Race

In pairs, pupils choose a number from 1 to 6. They then take turns rolling a die, and the first person whose number is rolled ten times wins. This leads to a discussion about whether each number has an equal chance of being rolled.

Justify your choice when placing events like 'it will rain tomorrow' and 'the sun will rise tomorrow' on a likelihood scale.

Facilitation Tip

Collate the whole class's results to see if any number appeared significantly more or less often.

What to look for

Ask pupils to complete an 'exit ticket' sentence: 'Today I learned that...' or 'I am still unsure about...'.

• Understand
• Analyze
• Evaluate
• Self-Awareness
• Social Awareness

A few notes on teaching this unit

Begin with real-life, personal examples like the chance of having pizza for dinner. Use a physical 'chance line' on the floor or whiteboard to provide a visual anchor for the vocabulary. Always follow up a pupil's answer with 'Why do you think that?' to encourage deeper reasoning and justification.

After these activities, pupils will be able to confidently use and explain the words 'certain', 'likely', 'unlikely', and 'impossible' when talking about everyday events.

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Watch Out for These Misconceptions

• Confusing 'unlikely' with 'impossible'.

  Explain that 'unlikely' means something probably won't happen but it still could. 'Impossible' means it absolutely cannot happen. For example, it's unlikely to snow in June, but it's impossible for a dog to speak English.

• The 'Gambler's Fallacy': thinking that past random events influence future ones.

  Clarify that each roll of a die or flip of a coin is an independent event. If you have rolled three sixes in a row, the chance of rolling another six is still exactly the same as it was for the first roll.

• Believing that all outcomes are equally likely in every situation.

  Use the 'Mystery Bag' activity with 8 red and 2 blue cubes to demonstrate this. While there are only two possible outcomes of colour, it is much more likely that you will pull out a red cube because there are more of them.

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Methods used in this brief

• Human Barometer