Chance: Likely and UnlikelyActivities & Teaching Strategies
Active learning works for this topic because young children build intuitive understanding through physical experience. When they spin, draw, and toss, they connect abstract words like 'likely' to real evidence in their hands. This hands-on approach makes probability concrete before moving to symbols or numbers.
Learning Objectives
- 1Classify simple events as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible based on given scenarios.
- 2Predict the outcome of simple chance events, such as coin tosses or spinner results.
- 3Record and tally the results of multiple trials for chance events.
- 4Compare predicted outcomes with actual results from chance experiments.
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Pairs Activity: Unequal Spinner Trials
Pairs draw and color spinners with unequal sections, such as three-quarters blue and one-quarter red. They predict the likely color, spin 20 times each, and tally outcomes on a sheet. Pairs then explain their results to another pair.
Prepare & details
What does it mean to say something is likely or unlikely to happen?
Facilitation Tip: During Unequal Spinner Trials, circulate and ask pairs to explain which color they think will come up most and why before they spin.
Setup: Standard classroom seating; students turn to a neighbor
Materials: Discussion prompt (projected or printed), Optional: recording sheet for pairs
Small Groups: Color Bag Predictions
Provide bags with varying ratios of colored counters, like 4 red and 1 blue in one bag. Groups predict the likely draw, perform 15 draws with replacement, record tallies, and graph results. Groups share why one color was more likely.
Prepare & details
How do you know if something will always happen, never happen, or might happen?
Facilitation Tip: In Color Bag Predictions, remind small groups to agree on a prediction before taking out counters to test their ideas.
Setup: Standard classroom seating; students turn to a neighbor
Materials: Discussion prompt (projected or printed), Optional: recording sheet for pairs
Whole Class: Coin Toss Tracker
Display a chart for heads and tails. Class predicts outcomes for 20 tosses, teacher tosses while students mark results live. Discuss if predictions matched and why multiple tosses matter.
Prepare & details
Can you give an example of something that is certain and something that is impossible?
Facilitation Tip: During Coin Toss Tracker, model how to record tallies with tall marks and a line crossing every fifth mark to build data literacy.
Setup: Standard classroom seating; students turn to a neighbor
Materials: Discussion prompt (projected or printed), Optional: recording sheet for pairs
Individual: Chance Sort Cards
Give students cards describing events, such as 'It rains in Ireland' or 'Pigs fly'. They sort into certain, likely, unlikely, impossible piles individually, then justify choices in a class share.
Prepare & details
What does it mean to say something is likely or unlikely to happen?
Facilitation Tip: For Chance Sort Cards, observe students as they justify their sorts aloud to check their grasp of the terms.
Setup: Standard classroom seating; students turn to a neighbor
Materials: Discussion prompt (projected or printed), Optional: recording sheet for pairs
Teaching This Topic
Teach this topic by letting students experience the contrast between expectation and reality first. Avoid giving definitions upfront; instead, let them discover the meanings through repeated trials. Research shows that young learners grasp probability best when they collect their own data and see patterns emerge over time. Avoid rushing to formal labels before they have enough evidence to support them.
What to Expect
Successful learning looks like students using the vocabulary of chance correctly to describe outcomes they observe. They should justify predictions with evidence from trials, such as pointing to a larger section on a spinner as the reason it is likely. By the end, they can classify events as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible with clear reasoning.
These activities are a starting point. A full mission is the experience.
- Complete facilitation script with teacher dialogue
- Printable student materials, ready for class
- Differentiation strategies for every learner
Watch Out for These Misconceptions
Common MisconceptionDuring Unequal Spinner Trials, watch for students who assume all sections have the same chance regardless of size.
What to Teach Instead
Have students predict which color they think will appear most often and why, then spin 20 times and tally results as a pair. Point to the larger section and ask, 'Does the size of the section change how often that color lands?'
Common MisconceptionDuring Color Bag Predictions, watch for students who think one draw tells the whole story about likely or unlikely.
What to Teach Instead
Ask groups to draw a counter 10 times, recording each result. Then gather class data to show that the blue counter appears about one-quarter of the time, matching the proportion in the bag.
Common MisconceptionDuring Coin Toss Tracker, watch for students who confuse 'certain' with 'likely' when only one outcome is possible.
What to Teach Instead
Use a bag with only green counters and draw repeatedly as a whole class. Ask, 'Can we ever draw a color that is not green? Why or why not?'
Assessment Ideas
After Chance Sort Cards, hold up picture cards for scenarios like 'a pig flying' or 'a sun rising.' Ask students to hold up colored cards for certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely and explain their choice aloud.
After Color Bag Predictions, give each student a small bag with 3 red counters and 1 blue counter. Ask them to draw a counter 5 times and record the colors. On their exit ticket, they write one sentence about whether it was likely or unlikely to draw the blue counter and why.
During Unequal Spinner Trials, pose the question: 'If I have a spinner with 4 equal sections, and 3 are green and 1 is red, what is likely to happen if we spin it 10 times?' Facilitate a class discussion where students share predictions and reasoning using the vocabulary.
Extensions & Scaffolding
- Challenge early finishers to design their own spinner with three colors where red is likely but not certain, then test it with a partner.
- For students who struggle, provide spinners with only two colors and cups with two counters to simplify the trials before moving to unequal sets.
- Deeper exploration: Ask students to predict outcomes for a spinner with five unequal sections, then design a small group experiment to test their prediction and present findings to the class.
Key Vocabulary
| Certain | An event that is guaranteed to happen. For example, the sun rising tomorrow is certain. |
| Impossible | An event that cannot happen. For example, a cat flying without assistance is impossible. |
| Likely | An event that has a high probability of happening, but is not guaranteed. For example, it is likely to rain if the sky is full of dark clouds. |
| Unlikely | An event that has a low probability of happening, but could still occur. For example, it is unlikely to win the lottery. |
| Outcome | The result of a chance event. For example, when tossing a coin, the outcomes are heads or tails. |
Suggested Methodologies
Planning templates for Foundations of Mathematical Thinking
5E Model
The 5E Model structures lessons through five phases (Engage, Explore, Explain, Elaborate, and Evaluate), guiding students from curiosity to deep understanding through inquiry-based learning.
Unit PlannerMath Unit
Plan a multi-week math unit with conceptual coherence: from building number sense and procedural fluency to applying skills in context and developing mathematical reasoning across a connected sequence of lessons.
RubricMath Rubric
Build a math rubric that assesses problem-solving, mathematical reasoning, and communication alongside procedural accuracy, giving students feedback on how they think, not just whether they got the right answer.
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